The circles’ interior color represents the storm’s atmospheric pressure. Fiercer storms have lower pressures and are shown in darker shades of purple.

Now let’s explore the theoretical storms.

To begin, touch_app pick a given surge height that a hurricane or tropical storm could create (anywhere from 1 to 19 feet):

There are 936 synthetic storms in the dataset that would cause surge about 3 feet above mean sea level* in Tampa.

Keep in mind, these are hypothetical storms. Researchers use thousands to study flood risk overall, rather than focusing on just one.

Here are three storms at random shuffle. Tap to see more.

In extreme cases, such surge could come from a storm with maximum nearby winds as slow as 29 mph, or as fast as 189 mph.

Now consider the flipside: only knowing the category of a hurricane or even a storm's maximum wind speed doesn't mean you can easily guess how much surge it will bring.

Other factors have a major effect, including how wide a storm’s winds extend, the track it takes toward land and how slowly it is moving.

Pick a random storm based on the maximum winds it would produce within 100 miles of Tampa Bay. How much surge could it create?

Here are three more random shuffle examples. Tap to see more.

*Mean sea level is a local measurement determined by taking the average of tidal heights every hour. The level of surge shown here does not represent how high flooding will reach over land. The actual water height would be less once the surge pushes onshore. This also does not project the surge across all of Tampa Bay. It covers just the single point in Tampa. Surge in other areas, say Clearwater Beach or Fort De Soto, could be higher or lower.